By Claire Moraa
- Platforms like S&P have an 83% accuracy prediction rate on elections
- Polymarket, an online betting platform has attracted bettors to predict the U.S 2024 elections
(S&P 500 +0.47%) can reportedly predict election outcomes with an 83% accuracy rate. Historically, bets have often been placed on events surrounding entertainment particularly sports. With the rise of online betting platforms and digital technology, their scope has greatly amplified and now includes bettors who stake their fortunes on an array of real-world occurrences, from reality TV show outcomes to papal elections, and even political events.
Why This Matters: Politics, in particular, has taken on a soap opera-like quality, captivating audiences with its ever-evolving narratives and high-stakes implications. Any interested party can upgrade from spectator and revel in the opportunity to participate in the political process with a sense of involvement. The growing participation has made the betting markets continue to flourish. Elections slated for November 2024 has approximated $567 billion and is growing significantly at a daily rate on Polymarket. The online betting market currently has an annual growth rate of 7.47% and a projected market volume of $65.14 billion by 2029. With these numbers, proprietors find themselves between a rock and a hard place.
Amidst the excitement surrounding novelty betting, ethical considerations arise. Elections, policies, and political decisions have profound implications for millions of lives and livelihoods. Some argue that wagering on such consequential events trivializes their gravity and reduces them to mere entertainment. Proponents counter that novelty betting fosters engagement and investment in the political process, encouraging active participation and informed decision-making. It will now be up to these betting companies to ensure fair play and preventing exploitation in this evolving digital and highly advanced technological landscape. Biden already encountered a fake AI discouraging voter turnout so you can see how such events could influence the outcome. And with presidential candidates already getting in bed with Crypto, the expansion is already in the pipeline.
Situational Awareness: Ultimately, the future of novelty betting will be shaped by our collective ability to embrace its potential while mitigating its risks. As we navigate this uncharted territory, it is crucial that we approach it with a spirit of curiosity, innovation, and a deep commitment to ethical and responsible practices. For it to truly thrive and maintain its legitimacy, it must strike a delicate balance between innovation and responsibility.
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